Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
